Viewpoint: Shanghai’s reopening pledge nothing more than the boy who cried wolf

COVID workers in Shanghai.When it comes to lifting lockdowns in China, false hope will remain the norm.

COVID workers in Shanghai.

Another week — and another pledge that the lockdown in Shanghai may be lifted. It’s not the first time this has been announced. 

And it won’t be the last.

The city’s vice mayor, Wu Qing, said at a news conference Thursday that there would be an “orderly opening, limited [population] flow and differentiated management.” Yet, no date has been set.

How many times do these false alarms have to be stated? “Actions speak louder than words” applies to this situation. The government’s actions are not reflecting the rhetoric that officials are putting out.

Anyone who has been reading the logistics reports knows the truth. The message is simple: The Chinese government, not the local level, is in control of the flow of manufacturing and trade.

Crane Worldwide Logistics informed clients in its Thursday  update: “For export, we still need to check with suppliers whether their local government allows container drayage or trucking service with truck drivers from Shanghai; or whether they can send cargo to our warehouse in Shanghai. We need to coordinate with the consignee for the document turnover and delivery schedule case by case for import.”

Worldwide Logistics offered a wide breakout on the “zero-COVID” status and impacts across the country to customers.

“We can see the Shanghai pandemic situation is trending towards a good prospect steadily,” the company said. “However, in some areas like Tai cang, Zhang jia gang and Chang shu, the COVID cases figure is rebounding, which causes the problem of cross-city delivery and containers stuffing. It should still take some time for the cross-city transportation to recover to the normal. The whole market is still impacted by the COVID situation, and the recovery depends on when the pandemic situation can be totally controlled in the country.’

(Courtesy of Worldwide Logistics)

Seko Logistics informed clients on Friday, “Trucking in and out of Shanghai requires a traffic permit, which is only valid for 24 hours and only on specific routes. Even with this arranged, it is possible for booked trucks to be commandeered by the government to transport aid supplies.”

This comment after China saying it has increased the list of companies that can reopen under a “closed loop system “ to 2000. The lack of ability for trucks to deliver raw materials into these “closed  loop” companies has impacted companies like Tesla, which had to stop production.

Now the government is trying to help.

The insanity of this situation has created a dense fog, making the logistics planning picture beyond murky. The obstruction created by Shanghai has gummed up vessel schedules.  

American Shipper reviewed a booking confirmation from Oakland, California, to Great Britain where the booking was on its 60th update. The estimated delivery went from late May to late June.

Once the roads are truly open and products can be completed and transported, a flood of containers is expected to arrive in the United States, at least a month or two after a real opening.

“Right now, the Trans Pacific Eastbound market reminds one of being in the eye of a hurricane,” said Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA. “Blue sky, available space and moderation of pricing.  However, soon enough the 100 miles per hour wind and rain could be battering supply chains all over again.”

No slicker or umbrella will protect the fragile U.S. logistics system when this container storm hits. The problems plaguing the Port of  LA and Long Beach are still there, no matter what messaging we hear from the Biden administration on improvements. 

The dwell time of the containers, and the continued long line of vessels waiting for berth, are a physical reminder of the inefficiencies.

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